油藏不同开发阶段引起产量递减的因素各不相同，在注水阶段含水率变化对产量的影响较大。根据含水率、含油率和累积产液量三者乘积的变化趋势，结合水驱合理注采比的计算，对注水阶段含水率变化进行对比优化，同时形成注水阶段油藏产量预测的新方法。将这种新方法应用到实际生产中，在没有数值模拟的情况下可以为油藏后期的开发调整提供一定的依据。

The factors of production decline are different at the reservoir development stages, and water cut is more influence on the production at the flooding stage. Based on the trend analysis of the product of the three, water cut, oil bearing, and cumulative production fluid, we form a new forecasting method of reservoir production at the flooding stage, combining the calculation of reasonable injection production ratio and the water cut optimization of the stage. This method supports the development of adjustment for reservoir without numerical simulation in practice.