为了更准确地预测凝析气藏的天然气和凝析油可采储量,利用哈伯特预测模型中油气产量、累积产量与时间的变化关系,对原模型公式进行了简单地变形和推导,并结合凝析气藏在当前经济技术条件下的废弃产量,确定了有效的生产时间,同时对天然气、凝析油作为独立的对象进行了回归拟合求解,获得了凝析气藏油、气的经济可采储量。指出结合实际改进后的哈伯特模型的预测结果更加符合凝析气藏的实际情况,可为油气藏储量管理及开发规划提供可靠的理论依据。

In order to accurately estimate the producible reserves of natural gas and condensate oil in condensate pool,a new model,which was derived from the relationship between oil & gas production,cumulative production and time in the Hubbert estimation model,taking scrap production of condensate pool in current economic and technical conditions,can be used to calculate effective production time and economical producible reserves of oil & gas in condensate pool.Through practice,the estimates using this method.