An Improved Non-deterministic Volumetric Method for Play or Trap with Quantifying Geological Scenarios
Received date: 2014-05-26
Revised date: 2014-09-12
Online published: 2015-03-10
Non-deterministic volumetric method is an optimal way to predicate in-place or recoverable resource size of a play or trap,which almost ignore the direct effect of geological model constraints on volumetric parameters and montecarlo simulation process.In addition,the domain resource assessment of the 3rd or the 4th tectonic trap is calculated by directly and simply cumulating the resource size of its segments or floor traps given specified success probability weights,this predication value generally doesn′t honestly reflect the practical geological conditions.In order to let uncertainty resource distribution embody definite and reasonable geological interpretation,this paper presents a heuristic resource predication method concluded from the development of integrated assessment software platform(PetroV),which is an improved non-deterministic volumetric method quantifying the geological model scenarios.It is also called as “probability combination cumulating” method.The essential of this algorithm is to sample and composite the 3rd or the 4th tectonic trap′s children undivided segment or floor trap considering geological model constraints.“Probability combination cumulating” method currently quantifies the following geological scenario:(1)Random value generated are in line with the correlation between two volumetric parameters|(2)Conformable beds assume the height is a constant when segments are stacked vertically|(3)Different compositions of those segments or floor traps are subject to types of discovery risk dependency types among them|(4)Fault sealing or leaking directly changes the water contact depth between two segments or floor traps.With practical demonstration and compared with current volumetric method,"probability cumulating" can explain each quantile value of resource distribution with clear geological scene.
SHENG Xiu-jie，JIN Zhi-jun，WANG Yi-gang，XIAO Ye . An Improved Non-deterministic Volumetric Method for Play or Trap with Quantifying Geological Scenarios[J]. Natural Gas Geoscience, 2015 , 26(3) : 456 -465 . DOI: 10.11764/j.issn.1672-1926.2015.03.0456
1］Jin Zhijun,Zhang Jinchuan.Fundamental principles for petroleum resource assessments[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,200，23(1):19-23.［金之钧,张金川.油气资源评价方法的基本原则[J].石油学报,200，23(1):19-23.］
［2］Sheng Xiujie,Jin Zhijun,Yan Qi,et al.Statistical method series for the resource assessment of petroleum accumulation system[J].Oil & Gas Geology,2013,34(6):829-830.［盛秀杰，金之钧,鄢琦,等.成藏体系油气资源评价中的统计方法体系[J].石油与天然气地质,2013,34(6):829-830.］
［3］Otis R,Schneidermann N.A process for evaluating exploration prospects[J].AAPG Bulletin,1997,81(7):1087-1109.
［4］Zhang Linye,Li Zheng,Kong Yangxing,et al.Study on evaluation method of petroleum resources in mature exploration area:Taking Niuzhuang Sag of Bohaiwan Basin as an example[J].Nature Gas Geoscience,2014,25(4):477-489.［张林晔,李政,孔样星,等.成熟探区油气资源评价方法研究——以渤海湾盆地牛庄洼陷为例 [J].天然气地球科学,2014,25(4):477-489.］
［5］Jin Zhijun,Zhang Jinchuan.Petroleum Resource Assessment Techniques［M］.Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1999:66-71.［金之钧，张金川.油气资源评价技术［M］.北京:石油工业出版社,1999:66-71.］
［6］Sheng Xiujie,Jin Zhijun,Guo Qintao.Discussion on integrated resource evaluation and software development[J].Geological Review,2014,60(1):160-167.［盛秀杰,金之钧,郭勤涛.油气资源评价一体化技术及软件实现的探讨[J].地质论评,2014,60(1):160-167.］
［7］Strategic Research Center of Oil & Gas Resources,Ministry of Land & Resources.Petroleum The Latest National Petroleum Resources Assessmen［M］.Beijing:China Land Press,2009:66-71.［国土资源部油气战略研究中心.新一轮全国油气资源评价［M］.北京:中国大地出版社,2009:66-71.］
［8］Chen Zhuoheng.Undiscovered petroleum accumulation mapping using model-based stochastic simulation[J].Mathematical Geology,2006,38(1):1-16.
［9］Jin Zhijun,Zhang Yiwei.Hydrocarbon Accumulation Mechanisms and Oil/Gas Distribution[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2003.［金之钧,张一伟.油气成藏机理与分布规律［M］.北京:石油工业出版社,2003.］
［10］Tao Shizhen,Zou Caineng,Wang Jinghong,et al.On the identification of connotation,extension,and type for some hydrocarbon accumulations [J].Nature Gas Geoscience,2011,22(4):571-575.［陶士振,邹才能,王京红,等.关于一些油气藏概念内涵、外延及属类辨析[J].天然气地球科学,2011,22(4):571-575.］
［11］Guo Qiulin,Mi Shiyun.Petroleum Prospect Assessment & Decision Analysis［M］.Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2004:21-22.［郭秋麟,米石云.油气勘探目标评价与决策分析［M］.北京:石油工业出版社,2004:21-22.］
［12］Li Song,Li Junting.Comprehensive evaluation method of oversea opportunity in oil and gas exploration[J].Nature Gas Geoscience,201，23(4):807-812.［李颂,李俊廷.海外油气勘探项目综合评价方法[J].天然气地球科学,201，23(4):807-812.］
［13］Rose P R.Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures[J].AAPG Methods in Exploration,2001,(12):178.
［14］Rose P R.Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures［M］.Dou Lirong,Traslation.Beijing:Petroleum Press,2002:6-50.［(美)罗斯.油气勘探项目的风险分析与管理［M］.窦立荣,译.北京:石油工业出版社,2002:6-9.］
［15］Jin Zhijun.A Comparison study on five basic oil and gas pool size probability distribution models and its significance[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,1995,74(3):12-15.［金之钧.五种油气藏规模概率分布模型比较研究[J].石油学报,1995,74(3):12-15.］
［16］Houghton J C,Dolton G L,Mast R F,et al.U.S.Geological Survey estimation procedure for accumulation size distributions by play[J].AAPG Bulletin,1993,77(3):454-466.
［17］Casella G,Robert C P.Monte Carlo Statistical Methods［M］Second Edition.Germany:Springer,2004.
［18］White D A.Geologic risking guide for prospects and plays[J].AAPG Bulletin,1993,77(12):2048-2061.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
甘公网安备 62010202000678号