Natural Gas Geoscience

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Study on unconventional natural gas economic evaluation

Su Jia-chun,Zhang Jin-chuan,Zhu Wei-lin   

  1. 1.School of Energy Resources,China University of Geological Science,Beijing 100083,China;
    2.China National Offshore Oil Corporation,Beijing 100029,China
  • Received:2017-11-08 Revised:2018-03-26 Online:2018-05-10 Published:2018-05-10

Abstract:

Research on unconventional natural gas economic evaluation is still in its infancy in China.Most approaches are directly borrowed from conventional natural gas models without proper adaptations or adjustments,which causes errors in field practice.To provide better tools for investment decision-making,principles,processes,methods,and coping-strategies of unconventional natural gas economic evaluation were proposed based on the resource properties,and were illustrated in a case study of a coalbed methane project.Theories of calculus and probability were applied to the evaluation principle due to the strong continuity in resources and vast differences in well performances.The principle required dividing the unconventional gas field into 3D-subunits based on diverse reservoir properties in different regions and different formations,and the economic evaluation of the entire field was grounded on the analysis of individual subunits.In each subunit,the production performances of different wells were further studied statistically based on probabilities.As unconventional reservoirs are commonly characterized by strong heterogeneity and commercial gas flow is usually obtained in the “sweet spots”,a chain evaluation process with the sweet spots as succeeding units was suggested in order to achieve a more accurate and timely evaluation,and to minimize risk.Four methods,including integration,probability statistics,fuzzy assessment and scenario analysis,were used in the evaluation,which put more emphasis on the uncertain parameters and stochastic processes.Based on the theory of natural gas accumulation and distribution spectra in clastic basins,natural gas economic evaluation spectra were proposed as the coping strategies for the economic assessment of different natural gas types,which suggested a gradual increase of the uncertainty expectations and risk appetites from conventional to unconventional,from tight gas to shale gas,and to coalbed methane.

Key words: Unconventional natural gas, Economic evaluation, Evaluation principle, Method improvement, Natural gas economic evaluation spectra

CLC Number: 

  • TE-9

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